Official regional statistics on economic activity tend to be produced with a considerable lag. GDP estimates, when eventually produced, moreover, are in current prices rather than in volume terms which restricts comparison across the regions. Regional deflators are not equal. Any analysis of recent trends in regional activity is, therefore, best served by an examination of the unemployment statistics.

Table 13.6: Unemployment rates (%) – Age 16 and over

2009 Q2Change on rate
a year earlier
(percentage points)
Percentage increase
in number of unemployed
Q2 2009 on Q2 2008
North East 9.8 2.3 29.0
North West 8.5 2.1 34.9
Yorkshire and Humber 8.8 2.8 46.5
East Midlands 7.3 1.6 30.8
West Midlands 10.6 4.2 70.7
East 6.5 1.9 43.7
London 8.9 2.0 28.7
South East 5.9 1.8 42.2
South West 6.4 2.6 68.6
Wales 7.6 2.6 52.1
Scotland 7.0 2.7 66.4
Northern Ireland 6.7 2.6 54.3
United Kingdom 7.8 2.4 44.7

While the recession has impacted on all areas of the economy, manufacturing and particularly that part of manufacturing dependent on exports, has been especially hard hit. In the year to the second quarter of 2009, manufacturing output fell by 12.5% in real terms with only the construction industry suffering a deeper contraction.

As a result it has been those regions which are relatively more dependent on manufacturing which have seen the biggest increases in unemployment. Of the ten regions with a location quotient for manufacturing greater than 1.0, seven experienced an above average increase in the number of unemployed.

The West Midlands, for instance, experienced a 71% increase in unemployment in the year to Q2 2009 with both Scotland and the South West both recording a rise of more than 65% and Wales and Northern Ireland over 50%.

Of the three other regions with a location quotient for manufacturing of more than 1.0, it seems likely that the North West and the North East were protected to a certain extent by the size of their government-financed services sector.